Analyst: PS3 will catch up to Wii by 2011 (Joystiq)

[R.O.B.]

Filed under: Sony PlayStation 3, Nintendo Wii, Microsoft Xbox 360

You'll typically find that any words following a colon and the word "analyst" are interesting enough to merit some consideration, yet vague enough to pass as either calculated reasoning or transparent thumb sucking. Speaking to The Economist regarding recent Activision Blizzard mega merger, Screen Digest analyst Piers Harding-Rolls notes that consolidation makes sense in an industry where all of the competing consoles matter. Some currently matter more than most, but he suggests that in the future, it might not be the ones you expect.

Harding-Rolls reckons that by 2011, the PlayStation 3 will not only have surpassed the Xbox 360, but will have caught up with the wildly popular Wii's worldwide install base. Though the PlayStation 3 has fared better in Japan following a price drop, the results of the American cut have yet to be revealed. A notable increase in sales is likely, but will it result in a continuing trend that eventually puts it on par with the Wii? It certainly doesn't seem realistic today, but who (aside from the analysts) knows what things await in the year 2011? Perhaps our analytical friend is merely holding out for the inevitable reality tunneling device which would enable travel to a realm where all of this is true.

If you want proper closure though, be sure to bookmark this page and return to it after about four years. We'll be waiting.

[Thanks, Andrew]

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments

---

SPONSORED BY: Age of Empires III - Real-Time Strategy Game Control a European power on a quest to colonize and conquer the New World. AOE3 introduces new gameplay elements, as well as new civilizations, units, and technologies. http://www.ageofempires3.com/

[Deity]

Haha, by that time the next generation consoles might be on the way

[Shortay]

I think the PS3 will come good eventually.

[Makeda]

Originally Posted by Deity

Haha, by that time the next generation consoles might be on the way

Certainly Nintendo's and maybe M$ but not Sony's. The PS3 will probably be around for about 6 years minimum as it is by far the most advanced one out of the three.

I find that forecast amusing that the Wii will outlive the 360 in terms of continued popularity.. I somehow doubt it. I have an assumption that the Wii will fade away out of favour in about two years time (by the end 2009) while the 360 will probably continue to drudge up a distant second to the PS3 from next year onwards

[Radretrogamer]

grim deduction, but possible Makeda. though i personaly enjoy time spent on the Wii, i can't help but notice the popular opinion of people, ages 18-30, not being positive. it seems to stem from the opinion that the Wii just isn't cool to them. Alot of my friends that bought a Wii, don't use it anymore. and the people that are still using it ( myself included ) want alot more from it: better games, more space ect.

The selling factor for me was the VC, and as long as that feature is handled properly, Wii will be my primary source of entertainment.

But Nintendo will need alot more than pixeled platformers to impress the masses. to so many the VC is treated as a gimmick, no better than the Mii channel, or Weather channel.

Unless some things improve, i cant help but see the Wii fading into a novelty item.

[The shoemaker]

Yes I also can see the wii fading. The vc had a great 1st year, but is there much left to have a great 2nd or 3rd year? Now wiiware is a good idea, IF the producers take it seriously, like I don't see much happening with that game pop. The wii software is slowly getting better, just someone needs to give nintendo a kick in the pants about having more online and serious games. And more challenging games. And I think Nintendos putting all of the wiis sales to there head. So the Wii could be great, or it could fail like the cube. But no matter what I'm sticking with Nintendo.

[Atlantis1982]

Originally Posted by The shoemaker

Yes I also can see the wii fading. The vc had a great 1st year, but is there much left to have a great 2nd or 3rd year?

Oh there are LOT OF GAMES I really want to see on the VC that hasn't released yet.

[hippiecrite]

Originally Posted by Atlantis1982

Oh there are LOT OF GAMES I really want to see on the VC that hasn't released yet.

Yeah same here. There's tons of stuff left for them to release.

[Makeda]

@Radretrogamer: It's kinda sad really because like you I deeply enjoy the time I spend on my Wii but in reality I know the console wont have that long legs once the general public catch on that the PS3 is closing in on its price tag and it plays Blu Ray >_>.

Besides that I do think that Nintendo have released a large percentage of its AAA titles within the first year which means for the subsequent years we have a lot of guessing work to go on. I for one can only think of around 3 or maybe 4 (if I push it) that I'm actually interested in and damn it only two of those are AAA (Brawl and Mario Kart)

[alexknibb]

Personally, I think the Wii will continue to have a niche market all of its own. I think that while it might lose market share, it will still continue to thrive as a second console. Just because there's been a 'clear winner' in most of the generations, doesn't mean there has to be this time around. I think this could be the first generation when having two consoles is the norm, rather than the preserve of hardcore gamers.

Personally, I enjoy my Wii immensely, but I've still got one eye on the PS3 when it's released. Not to replace the Wii, but to complement it.

Also, it's worth considering that the Wii is technologically inferior to the others. The money generated from the Wii should mean that the successor to the Wii (which could well end up being just a Wii with a hardcore graphics card and processor) could hit well before the next gen from Sony, Microsoft and Atari (here's hoping ) which could help them in the long term.

Just my musings.

[alexknibb]

Oh, and could we plot the Vii on that graph as well? I love that little guy...